The Decline of Chris Davis

Early in this baseball season I've been following two players very closely: Mike Trout and Chris Davis.

Following Mike Trout is for obvious reasons.  He's the best player in baseball and has a chance of being the GOAT in baseball.

Chris Davis is an interesting story.

From 2013 to 2015 he lead the AL in home runs twice, hitting 126 home runs over those three years.  That lead him to get a 7 year contract extension for $161 million.

Since then, he has produced WARs of 3.3, 0.0, and -2.8 from 2016-2018.  In 2018, he hit .168 with a .539 OPS.  The .168 is the worst batting average for a position player who qualified for the batting title in about 100 years.

What happened?  It's sort of interesting to look at the deeper statistics.

From 2013-2015 Davis struck out about 31% of his plate appearances.  That stayed relatively consistent and was 32.9% in 2016.  But it jumped to about 37% in 2017 and 2018.

His strikeout rate was about the same in both 2017 and 2018, but his batting average fell from .215 to .168.  That fall of 47 points is pretty large considering his strikeout rate didn't change.

Was it due to bad luck and/or better positioning of fielders?  That can explain some of it, as his batting average balls in play (BAbip) fell from .301 to .237.

But there were some additional issues.

In 2017 37.3% of his batted balls were grounders.
In 2018, it was 40.0%.

In 2017, 29.1% of his batted balls were line drives.
In 2018, it was 25.2%.

In 2017, 28.4% of his fly balls turned into home runs.
In 2018, it was 15.6%

So while there may have been some bad luck in 2018, he was hitting more ground balls (which are more likely to be outs), hitting fewer line drives (which are more likely to be hits), and he had less power in his fly balls (which turns into more outs).

That and some bad luck, and suddenly you cross the mendoza line and hit .168.

Unfortunately, 2019 is not starting off too well for Davis.  He started the season going 0-28 and he recently broke the record for most consecutive at bats without a hit.  On top of that, he's striking out at a 46.8% clip.  Yikes!

Update 8/21/19:

A somewhat interesting aside.  I had a conversation with some friends about "sunk cost fallacy" and mentioned Chris Davis.  I was reminded of this article: How a Hitless Chris Davis Is Like a $15 Dessert.

In it Nobel Prize winning economist Richard Thaler states that the refusal to cut Chris Davis is the Orioles playing to the sunk cost fallacy.

However, I disagree with him in this case.  (Edit: Ok, technically Orioles could be playing sunk cost fallacy, BUT what I'm really saying is there are actually reasons they may not be.) B/c the situation isn't quite the same.  The classic example of sunk cost fallacy brought up in the article is:

One of his favorite illustrations of sunk cost, he said, is deciding whether or not to attend a basketball game you had purchased tickets for even though attending would mean traveling through a blizzard.

I don't believe this analogy applies to the Chris Davis case.

In the MLB, you have to field a team on the field.  That's an active roster of 25 / expanded roster of 40.  If you were to cut Chris Davis, you'd presumably have to put someone else on the roster.

So cutting Chris Davis isn't free, compared to the basketball ticket example above.  You do have to increase your team salary as a result.

Now, adding a minimum salary MLB player to your roster probably is in the noise to a MLB team.  So why cut him?  The article states:

The team should cut Davis and replace him with a minor leaguer, as even a so-called replacement (or near average) player would represent a significant improvement.

This is true.  However, what's the point of it?  The Orioles only won 47 games in 2018 and are pace to win about 51 this year.  Cutting Chris Davis will hardly matter in the standings and the capability for this team to make the playoffs.

Another way to think about it?  If you're the worst team in baseball, why does it matter being a slightly better worst team in baseball?  Or if you miss the playoffs by 40 games, what difference does it make to miss the playoffs by 37 or 38 games.

On top of that, winning a few extra games might actually be dis-advantageous.  This year, the Orioles are actually "challenging" for the worst record in baseball.  The Tigers (as of this writing) have lost a few extra games.  That can affect the Orioles in their attempt to get a better draft pick.

Given how bad the Orioles are, it may be advantageous to just keep on playing Chris Davis in order to lose a few extra games and get that better draft pick.

Now, there are a few reasons I thought of why the Orioles might want to cut Chris Davis and use the roster spot on someone else.  They all center around giving someone else a shot / experience, and using that to help the team become better long term.

1) Give some bench player / minor leaguer some more playing time.

2) Take a flyer in free agency.

3) Give a rule 5 draftee a roster spot.

Given how terrible the Orioles are, they may be reluctant to start the service clock on a number of minor leaguers earlier than necessary.  #2 and #3 are effectively the same, use the roster spot as a means to acquire some talent either by giving someone a chance to turn things around (the Orioles could keep the player or and trade them for prospects) or use the rule 5 draft to acquire a prospect.

Naturally, #2 can cost a non-trivial amount of money (as an example, Matt Harvey was paid $11 million for his trial with the Angels this year), so that can only be considered when looking at the potential options in free agency.

#3 is atleast a low cost option.  It costs $100K for the draftee in addition to the salary for the roster spot.  So it's not free, and has to be weighed with the fact that the rule 5 draft prospects are typically not the greatest caliber prospects.

All of this has to be weighed against the fact that winning 3 or 4 more games a year may be disadvantageous towards getting a better draft pick.

So while there may be opportunities for the Orioles by cutting Chris Davis, I don't think it's entirely obvious that they should do so.

Dinner @ Mourad in San Francisco, CA

A couple of years ago I was able to hit up Mourad for a friend's birthday.  I was able to dine there recently for another birthday, this time for 6 people.  So we ended up ordering a lot more food than last time.

One of the coolest things they have at Mourad is a family style meal called "la'acha".  Basically, it's a large family style protein served with sides.  For 6 people we ordered two of them with a bunch of appetizers to share.  It ended up being way more food than we could eat.  This is an overview of what we had.

1) Eggplant - cucumber, oregano, pepper, flatbread, za'atar, pine nuts

We ordered two of these appetizers for the group.  The flatbread was particularly delicious, which I used the soak up all of the pureed eggplant from the main dish at the top.

2) Duck liver - citrus, ginger, rye, pistachio

We got just one duck liver appetizer, which was perfect for 6 people, as each person could get about 1/2 of a scoop of duck liver on a piece of bread.  Overall, quite good, although I felt the liver overpowered some of the other ingredients.

3) Octopus - brussel sprouts, cauliflower, mustard, preserved lemon

We ordered two of this appetizer for the group as well.  I didn't catch what the server said about this dish, but I believe the sauce in the middle was a mushroom ju and the white sauce is a cauliflower puree of some sort.  The octopus was incredibly tender and flavorful.  Along with all of the sauces and the perfectly charred brussel sprouts, my favorite appetizer of the night.

4) Lamb Shoulder - tangia, moyer prune, cumin, almond, chicories

The first la'acha main dish we got was the lamb shoulder, which you can see in the middle nestled on some seasonal greens.  You can also see almonds and the moyer prunes (covered in sesames) nestled on top too.  It's hard to see how much food there is since a lot of it is covered it, but it was a sizable portion for 6 people and probably would have been perfect for 4 people.

The lamb was really tender and not to "lamby" compared to the lamb I normally cook up from Costco.  Overall really good.

5) Chicken - preserved lemon, gaeta olive, cipollini, marash pepper

The second la'ache main we ordered was the chicken.  Normally, I'm not a big fan of white meat on chicken.  It's typially dry and (IMO) just not that tasty. 

I took one for the team and grabbed some chicken breast so that everyone else get get more dark meat.  It's probably the best chicken breast I've ever eaten in my life.  It was juicy, not dry in any way, and just delicious with whatever glaze they put on top.  When I told everyone at the table how good the chicken was, they didn't believe me at first.  In fact, I might have preferred the white meat to the dark meat in this case.

It's worth noting at this point that there was no way the 6 of us were going to finish these two la'achas.  Each was probably the perfect size for 4 people, and with the appetizers, we had left overs.

6A) Kale - olive, harissa

6B) Potato - hollandaise, preserved lemon, tarragon

6C) COUSCOUS - brown butter

6D) Heirloom beans - shakshuka, feta, sumac

The la'acha comes with the 4 sides above.  I will repeat a comment my friend told me from the last time I ate here.  The sides are all relatively plain ingredients, but all the little additions (hollandaise on the potatoes, preserved lemon the kale, feta on the beans, etc.) everything is just a little tastier than you would expect.  Of all of the above, my favorite was the potatoes.

7) Honey & Almond - beeswax, orange blossom

We were completely stuffed after ordering too much food.  Since it was a birthday dinner, we got one dessert for everyone to share and take a bite of.  The waiter recommended this dish.  As far as I can tell, it's a honey flavored ice cream-ish thing (searching online it might be sabayon), with almond granita, and some crispy bits on top.  Overall, I loved the flavors in this dish, really good.

8) Sesame fudge

Finally we got some mignardise (I took the picture after many pieces were yoinked), which was some sesame fudge bites.  After biting into it, it immediately reminded me of several Chinese flavored desserts that have sesame flavor.  Overall, really really good.

Overall, a great meal at Mourad.  I can't recommend it enough.  The price is not too exorbitant given the quality of the food that you're getting, especially when getting the la'acha family meals.

Poor reviews for Fallout 76 & Anthem

I have not played either Fallout 76 or Anthem.  However, I've been following the comments and reviews online, and find their reception very interesting.

Both games come from storied RPG developers.  Fallout 76 coming from Bethesda, the makers of Fallout 3, Fallout 4, and the Elder Scrolls series.  Anthem comes from Bioware, the creators of the Dragon Age and Mass Effect series.

Both companies have storied history creating incredible worlds and stories, but they've all been single-player RPG experiences.

It's very interesting that both made a decision to create a multiplayer RPG at some point in the last 5 years, and both released it in about a 3 month window of each other.

And both games have not been received as well as their prior single player RPGs.

Lets start with Fallout 76, which was released in November 2018.  The game is averaging a review of about 50/100 on most of the review aggregator sites.  It puts the game squarely in the "poorly reviewed" category, it's not even close to "mixed reviews".

As far as the reviews go, it seems that the general commentary is that by taking a single player game that concentrated on story (including quests, NPCs, etc.) and turning it into a multi-player game where you interact with other humans, just made the game terrible.  Unlike MMORPGs, by trying to mix multi-player into a single-player like gameplay just didn't work.  Other human players were simply not as interesting as NPCs.

In addition, the single player Fallouts weren't considered good shooter games.  But one has to remember they don't have to be.  The primary focus of the game was on the solo-story aspect.  So the shooting mechanism was there as a necessary way to fight enemies.  But transform that into a multi-player shooter, and the reality is there are a many better shooters out there.

Add in a bunch of bugs, and you have a game getting an F grade overall.

The story of Anthem's reviews seems much the same, although not quite as bad.  The review averages seem to be converging in the low 60s range on aggregator sites, so it's just hanging onto the "mixed review" territory.

Bioware attempted to make a multi-player shooter, but have a solo-RPG story for the user.  Most of the reviews thus far have panned the mixture.

The reviews of the shooter aspects of the game are generally good, but the story and the purpose of the game have been heavily criticized.

Although I cannot find the review, the best comment was one that stated that if the game were only a shooter game, it probably would be ok.  Imagine you are playing the game with friends (b/c its multiplayer).  In most shooter games, you go shoot things, get loot / win / whatever, then try to shoot more things again.

But it completely fell apart in Anthem.  Instead, you go shoot things, get loot, have to go walk around a city by yourself, talk to people (by yourself), then go configure your fighter (by yourself), then eventually after many minutes, you can go shoot more things.  If this is a multi-player game, how are you supposed to enjoy playing with your friends when you have to run around by yourself so much?

There are other criticisms that aren't important to go into (weak story, poor missions, etc.).  Add in the fact that the shooter game doesn't even have PvP, then people begin to wonder what kind of game it is.  Now you have a game that is averaging around a D- grade.

I find it so interesting how both Bethesda & Bioware went the multi-player route with poor results.

Was there industry pressure to create multi-player games even though their experience was single player?  To have microtransactions in games?

Yet, to appease their fanbase, to try and add a similar single player RPG experience into the game?

Naturally, one then wonders how these companies will react given the bad reviews of these multiplayer games. Will they go back and try to create a new / great single-player RPG?  Or will they dig in their heels and continue with multiplayer going forward?

Night Trap - The Movie

So not too long ago a friend of mine picked up the video game Night Trap for the PS4.  For those who don't know the history, Night Trap was a terrible video game made in the early 1990s for the Sega CD console.  The game was made using full motion video and was controversial at the time, leading to it being brought up during congressional hearings.

Apparently when the game was re-made for the PS4, it also came with a way to view all of the scenes in the game so you could piece together the actual story.  I guess some people have been piecing those clips together to make a movie:



The "movie" is so bad, it's actually good.  Obviously some of it was b/c it was all filmed for a video game, (breaking the 4th wall, bad guys walking slow), but add in the cheesy B movie acting, a cheesy video game song, terrible sound effects (I think "dentist drill"), terrible special effects, a ridiculous plot, it's wonderful.

Some of the hilarious oddities I couldn't help but laugh about

12:02 - "Want to die Eddie?"
19:20 - two actresses remove their shirts, for no apparent reason
23:24 - racist accent, b/c apparently it was ok back then
26:30 - the infamous nightgown scene with a terribly hidden kidnapper
28:20 - character brushing his teeth for no reason
41:10 - uhhh .. dunno
42:45 - nonchalant lighting powers
48:28 - ... special effects?

Dining @ Rich Table in San Francisco, CA

I first heard of Rich Table around 6 years ago when the San Francisco Chronicle pondered why they weren't given a Michelin Star.  Well, they eventually captured a Michelin Star in 2017 after many years of praise locally.  Reservations are hard to come, as Rich Table has regularly been considered one of the best gourmet-casual spots in the city.  But I was finally able to snag a reservation for a Saturday at a time I could make.

Rich Table's menu is divided into four chunks: snacks, appetizers, pastas, and mains.  The pasta is said to be "primi" sized and not really entree sized.  There's also a chef's picks for $99 per person for about 6 courses.  The chef's pick apparently goes with both menu and off menu dishes.  If you go the a la carte route, the waitress recommended 2-3 snacks, and an appetizer, pasta, and main to share.  We followed her suggestions for the a la carte route, and here's what we got.

1) Sardine Chip - horseradish creme fraiche

This is apparently a signature snack from Rich Table and it's priced $2.50 per chip, which you can see is a chunk of sardine weaved into a potato chip.  We didn't know how many to order and just ordered 4 for the two of us.  I think that was the right amount, as 1 each would have been too little.

Overall quite tasty.  The horseradish creme fraiche was delicious, with a bit of kick, but not so strong as overtake the dish (e.g. like horseradish wasabi can).  I would love the horseradish creme fraiche as a general dip for chips.

2) burrata, bbq leek, romesco, everything crumble

This dish was the appetizer that we ordered, the restaurant brought all the snacks and appetizers out at the same time.  I had expected the dish to be more "balanced", like a salad, but the dish was mostly burrata.  But this ended up not being an issue, because the burrata was delicious.  I can't remember having a burrata that was quite light in this flavor and creamy as well.  I think I would have enjoyed it paired in a typical salad instead of with roasted leeks though.

3) Dried Porcini Doughnuts - raclette

This is apparently another semi-well known snack from this restaurant.  Doughnuts, lightly sprinkled with dried porcini powder, which you can dip into melted raclette cheese which you can you on the right.  Overall, lots of umami in this dish.  There are 5 small doughnuts served, which maybe is a tad high for 2 people.  It would be better for this to be ordered in a group.

4) aged beef wonton - chili oil, sesame

The wontons were listed at $5 each, so I didn't quite know what to expect.  I had expected them to be huge, but these were more medium sized.  Overall tasty, with a lot of umami from the chili paste on top.  The dumpling skins were particularly good, chewy but not too thick.  Good, but I'm not sure these were worth $5 a piece.

5) tonnarelli, sea urchin cacio e pepe, idiazabal

Other than the fact that this was a pasta dish with sea urchin, I had no idea what "cacio e pepe" or "idiazabal" was.  Well, the former is a type of pasta and the latter is a type of cheese.  Overall, really good dish, creamy, rich, with the pasta perfectly al dente.  I appreciated the fact that the dish was a "primi" size portion of pasta, and not some gigantic pasta dish.  Otherwise we wouldn't have been able to eat ...

6) 21 day aged ribeye, RT "Poutine"

So we picked this entree somewhat at random, just b/c we hadn't had a steak in awhile.  It was topped with the restaurant's version of poutine.  You can clearly see the gravy sauce, but there are pieces of fries on top with cheese and some vegetable (perhaps a swiss chard or kale).  I thought the topping of the poutine was an interesting choice.  I actually enjoyed eating the poutine a bit by itself, b/c it was really good with perfectly crisp fries.

But in combination with the steak, I'm not really sure I enjoyed it that much.  I should say the cheese as a sauce for the steak was good but was a bit perplexed by the combo.  The steak was cooked a perfect medium.

I should mention that this steak was gigantic.  I think we were expecting around a 8-10 oz steak to share, but this was more like a 14-16 oz.  If it were a steak by itself, that'd be one thing, but with all the fries on top, it was more food than we expected.

7) Coconut Cake - lime curd, brown butter ice cream

Due to the gigantic steak, we decided to just share one dessert.  Given it was cold and raining this day, we rejected several of the other "cold" desserts and went with this coconut cake b/c we figured it was the least cold dessert.  This cake was delicious, which sprinkles of coconut, frosting, and lime curd dotted all around.  I didn't think the brown butter ice cream had quite the flavor I was hoping for.

Overall, a great meal.  We put the meal on a similar level of Aster and Al's Place amongst the city's gourmet-casual dining spots.

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Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2024

It was recently announced that the Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2019 would include Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, and Roy Halladay.

What's interesting is how many players have been voted in in recent years after a big donut in 2013.

2014 - Maddux, Glavine, Thomas
2015 - Johnson, P. Martinez, Smoltz, Biggio
2016 - Griffey Jr., Piazza
2017 - Bagwell, Raines, Rodriguez
2018 - Jones, Guerrero, Thome, Hoffman
2019 - Rivera, E. Martinez, Mussina, Halladay

That's 4 players in each of the last two years, atleast 3 in 5 of the last 6 years, for a total of 20 in the last 6 years.  In contrast, there were only 9 players elected from 2007-2012 (and again, there were zero in 2013).

However, things are looking slim for awhile.  Assuming that PED connected layers like Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa, and controversial players like Schilling won't get to 75%, here's what looks like the strong and maybe cases until 2023.

2020 - Jeter is a lock, Bobby Abreu is a medium candidate
2021 - Tim Hudson is the best of a weak new set of candidates
2022 - Alex Rodriguez has PED connections, David Ortiz is a strong consideration
2023 - Carlos Beltran is a medium-strong candidate

Discounting players connected to PEDs, I would say there were 5-6 locks amongst the 2013-2019 group, and 5-6 medium to strong candidates.  But the 2020-2023 group looks a little thin.  Only 1 lock with Jeter, and Ortiz & Beltran the only minimally medium-ish candidates (discounting the PED connected A-Rod).


I was curious which players retired after the 2018 baseball season, because they would be eligible for the 2024 HOF vote.  2024 is when the HOF voting should pick up again.  The 2024 additions could be Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, and Chase Utley.  I would consider Suzuki a lock, Beltre, a "very strong", Mauer a medium-strong, and Utley atleast medium (he could hover like Jeff Kent has).  Suzuki hasn't officially retired yet, so it's possible he would be included in the 2025 HOF vote, but things should definitely pick up after 2023.

Milk / Cream With Egg Desserts

Some time ago someone had mentioned to me how they thought Chinese egg tarts (dan tat) were a bit of a weird dessert.  I said something to the effect, "Do you think creme brulee is a weird dessert?"  They responded no, then I said, "then it's not a weird dessert, you're just not used to that kind of dessert at a Chinese restaurant or with dim sum."

The conversation then moved into the differences between various milk / cream with egg desserts.  The reality is so many desserts have only minor variations from each other.  So the weirdness really comes from the unfamiliarity with it in a certain cuisine or in a certain restaurant.

I was reminded on this conversation after making some pot de creme and decided to recall the differences.  The internet is not too helpful on some of the detailed differences (everyone has their own recipe, globalization / commercialization has changed recipes over the years), but here's my minimally researched summary on all the differences.

The main difference between all of these desserts is the ratio of milk, cream, sugar, and eggs (and if it uses egg yolks or whites or both).  I don't mention the ratios or the specific cooking technique, it's just to give the basics.  I don't mention flavoring, which all of the below can add whatever flavoring you want (vanilla, chocolate, lemon, etc.).

Here we go with the dessert list.

custard - milk / cream & sugar and egg yolks used to thicken it

creme brulee - custard with a caremalized sugar topping

flan - custard with a caramel sauce topping

pot de creme - a lighter custard

pastry cream - an even lighter custard, usually done by using only milk and/or using only egg whites.  Use this in ...

cream puff - pastry with pastry cream in it

bavarian cream - pastry cream, but add whipped cream to make it lighter.

mousse - like custard, but instead of cream / egg straight up, add whipped cream / whipped egg whites to make it lighter and airier.

semifreddo - mousse but you freeze it

ice cream / frozen custard - you basically start with a custard, then you churn / freeze it (modern day ice creams in stores may not add eggs, as they may use other thickeners)

gelato - different ratios than ice cream, leading to denser / less airy form

Portuguese egg tart / pastel de nata - custard in a puff / pie crust, and slightly caramelized on top

so ... how is Chinese egg tart different?

Chinese egg tart (dan tat) - custard in a puff / pie crust, usually less sweet.  No caramelization on top compared to pastel de nata.  The internet can't seem to agree if the custard is denser or lighter, I'm sure every restaurant / region has a variation.

And I'll add one more Chinese dessert that hasn't really gotten a foothold in Western countries.

Chinese steamed pudding - milk with egg whites as thickener

at the end of the day?  How different are these desserts really?

To finish up this post, for fun, how about a few other desserts that are similar, but just use non-eggs as thickeners.

pudding - milk & sugar with flour / cornstarch used as thickener

panna cotta - milk / cream & sugar and gelatin as thickener