Where will Albert Pujols go and how much can he get?

The question that's on everyone's mind is where Albert Pujols will go and how much he can get.

I think there are a few contracts to look at to really get a gauge of the type of contract Pujols can get.

Alex Rodriguez, Age 32, 10 year $275 million
Adrian Gonzalez, Age 28, 7 year $154 million
Mark Teixeira, Age 28, 8 year $180 million
Ryan Howard, Age 30, 5 year $125 million extension

Ryan Howard's extension was given to him after he had completed 1 year of a 3 year contract. So to some extent, the extension is really a contract for Ryan Howard at age 32, not 30.

First, lets look at the Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, and Ryan Howard contracts. Together the three average about $23 million a year, with Ryan's howards $25 million/year the highest. I suppose we can use this as a measurement for what an elite first basemen has been able to obtain over the last few years. Albert Pujols is certainly in a class above these first basemen, so one can reason that he can obtain a premium above these players.

However, there are a few differences between Albert Pujols and these first basemen. Albert Pujols turns 32 in January 2012. Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez were able to obtain their lengthy contracts at an age 3-4 years younger than Albert Pujols. Ryan Howard's 4 year extension perhaps gives an indication of the hesitation teams may have in giving an older first baseman a 7-8 year contract.

On the other hand, Alex Rodriguez was able to receive his 10 year contract at the age of 32, the same age as Albert Pujols. At the time he received the contract, Alex Rodriguez was arguably the best player of his generation and had just won his 3rd MVP. So perhaps its Albert Pujols could get a similar contract?

I have scepticism Albert Pujols can obtain a contract of such magnitude. The baseball marketplace will be much different for Albert Pujols than it was for Alex Rodriguez. First, the two highest spending teams, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, have already secured long term contracts to elite first basemen (Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez respectively). While its always possible those teams may attempt to move those players or attempt to sign Albert Pujols as a DH, the odds are low. With the Yankees and Red Sox presumably out of the picture, it takes two big spending teams off the market in the Albert Pujols sweepstakes.

In addition, the marketplace may not be willing to suffer giving a player in his early 30s a 10 year contract after baseball saw how injuries have affected Alex Rodriguez. In 2011, we saw Alex Rodriguez hit only 16 home runs over 99 games and eek out a measly .823 OPS. Certainly not the production you expect from a player you're paying $27.5 million for.

So taking into account the current "market rate" for elite first basemen, Albert Pujols' success, age, and the removal of the Yankees & Red Sox, it stands to reason that Albert Pujols can get a contract that is better than the other elite first basemen, but less than the Alex Rodriguez contract. If I had to guess, Albert Pujols will get a 8 year contract in the range of $210-$230 million. (As a note, it is rumored the Cardinals offer during the 2011 spring training was 9 years for about $190-$200 million.)

Naturally, that's a conclusion is based on some amount of logic and reason. What can't be determined is if some team will go crazy with a contract. That's the one thing that will be difficult to determine.

So where will Albert Pujols go? Well presumably, the team that signs him will:

A) Need a first basemen or could move their current first basemen
B) Has the financial resources to sign Albert Pujols
C) Has the organizational fortitude to offer such a contract

Based on these criteria, which are the teams that I think have the best shot?

California Angels - Could use a big upgrade over Trumbo. Have signed Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero in past big moves.

Chicago Cubs - New ownership might like to make a splash and take away Albert Pujols from their rivals. Theo Epstein and crew are not shy to big signings. An issue for the Cubs is the lingering big contracts on their roster.

Los Angeles Dodgers - Assuming the financial issues of the owners is settled (it apparently is), could make a run.

San Francisco Giants - A team badly in need of offense. Their signings of Barry Bonds and Barry Zito show the willingness to make a big move.

St. Louis Cardinals - The question is how high will the rest of the league go. If Albert Pujols gets something crazy, its unlikely the Cardinals will bite.

Washington Nationals - When I was first told they could make a run at Pujols, I laughed. But now that I think of it, there's a decent chance. They have shown the willingness to spend money, and while the team isn't a serious contender now, they were 80-81 last year and have a good group of young players.

Teams I don't think it could happen with despite chatter on the topic:

New York Mets - With all their financial issues related to Madoff, my feeling is the Mets can't make a run at Pujols like they normally might try to go after big free agents.

Atlanta Braves - Financially have the resources, but traditionally this organization doesn't go crazy and try to make huge moves.

Baltimore Orioles - Financially good resources, probably organizationally could make the move, but I have a funny feeling Albert Pujols wouldn't want to go to the AL East. The odds of making it to the playoffs ever again are just that much worse when the Yankees and Red Sox are in your division.

Texas Rangers - The fit is good, they could use an upgrade to first base, and they've shown the willingness to throw around money (Cliff Lee). However, I would assume they will go after pitching instead. They got so many good bats in that lineup that more offense isn't a concern.

Well, it'll be an interesting off-season. I'll update this post when we figure out the answer.

Update 12/8/11:

Well, my guesses were pretty on spot on. The push by the Miami Marlins was a tad unexpected, but the players involved were pretty well known. Albert Pujols got a little more many than my guesses, $254 million.

John Kruk Interviews

Was wandering through YouTube looking at random baseball related videos when I came upon these two hilarious John Kruk interviews on Letterman. Classic Kruk ...

Android a stolen product? Yes and No

So after the death of Steve Jobs, a lot of his quotes from his biography have come out. One in particular stands out to me (this chunk is ripped from How Steve Jobs could haunt Android):

“I’m going to destroy Android, because it’s a stolen product,” Jobs told Isaacson. “I’m willing to go thermonuclear war on this.”

“Our lawsuit is saying ‘Google, you f---ing ripped off the iPhone, wholesale ripped us off.’” He also said he was willing to spend “every penny of Apple’s” then-$40 billion in cash to “right this wrong,” and he vowed to “destroy Android, because it’s a stolen product.”

My parents asked me, "Do you think it's true?" My response was yes and no.

Yes, Android implemented some ideas from iPhone.

No, it's not a big deal and the issue is overblown.

There is a great quote I heard along time ago. I can't find it despite my Googling efforts, but it goes something like this:

"The vast majority of research and development is continual iteration and improvement on previous designs. There is very little innovation."

Was Apple Macintosh the first GUI based OS/computer? Nope. Multiple designs were done prior. In fact, there is evidence that Apple modeled Macintosh off of a previous Xerox computer.

Was iPod the first portable digital music player? Nope, there were tons before that played MP3s.

Was iPhone the first technology with a multitouch interface? Nope. It'd been done for years.

In my opinion, this is just what happens in the world of technology. Various companies "borrow" ideas from their competitors and they iterate and improve on them.

When did Facebook support newsfeeds? After Twitter became popular.

When did Google support +1 support? After Digg became popular.

When did Apple support multitasking in iOS? After Android released support for it.

We could go on and on ... This type of iteration has gone on forever. In my opinion, it's somewhat silly to suggest that Google "stole" from Apple, but Apple never stole from others.

To end, I'm reminded of this semi-famous scene in Pirates of Silicon Valley.



While this scene is fiction, I think the analogy is right on.

Albert Pujol's Other Epic Postseason Homerun

After Albert Pujols' epic night tonight (5-6, 3 home runs, 6 RBIs), I was reminded of his previous epic postseason home run. It wasn't in the World Series, but given the situation, it was perhaps more epic. It was game 5 of the 2005 NLCS. Houston was in the 9th inning at home on the verge of going to the World Series.

Brad Lidge was on the mound to close out the game. At this point in his career, Brad Lidge was nearly unhittable. In 2004-2005 Brad Lidge had a 2.07 ERA over 165.1 innings pitched and an insane 260:53 strikeouts:walks ratio. He was particularly effective in the playoffs and the Cardinals in 2004-2005. Prior to game 5 he gave up 1 run over 12 innings, striking out 18 against the Cardinals in the postseason.

Brad Lidge made quick work of the first 2 Cardinals in game 5, striking both of them out. So as you can imagine, the Astros fans were going nuts. They were one out away from going to the World Series and their Cardinals killer was on the mound. In the video below, you can even see George Bush Sr. and Barbara Bush in the first row behind home plate. Then David Eckstein eeked out a hit when the count was 1-2. Then Jim Edmunds worked a walked. Then this happened ...



Notice how Brad Lidge squatted down and realized it was a home run before even bothering to look at it. The ball was absolutely crushed.

While the Cardinals ended up losing game six and the Astros advanced to the World Series, people still remember this home run. Many feel that home run destroyed Brad Lidge's confidence and he was never really the same. He lost 2 games against the Chicago Whitesox in the World Series. In 2006 his ERA ballooned to 5.28 and he even lost his closer job in 2007. He was able to rebound with a great year in 2008 with the Phillies, but he never was ever quite the same again.

Getting Everyone On The Same Page

I was reading this article on TheDailyWTF.

http://thedailywtf.com/Articles/Get-to-da-COPPA!.aspx

Like many TheDailyWTF articles, it's a nice humorous story, but I love the last part of the story.

The short story is engineer Derek could not come to a reasonable compromise with engineer Steve on a solution to a problem. After many internal frustrations, Derek bypassed Steve's engineering team entirely, went to the software install team, and changed the install process for the software. The result? Derek implements his solution without ever involving the team that writes the software. The end of the article states, "Steve's team got to keep their constraint, and the customers didn't."

I love that last sentence.

"Steve's team got to keep their constraint, and the customers didn't."

The core engineering team will never see a setup (and will never know the setup for awhile) that the customers will always have. Long term, that can't be good.

While this is an extreme example, it got me thinking. How often do internal managers/staff not come to an agreement or get on the same page? As a consequence, staff begin doing whatever it takes to get the job done, bypassing teams, roles, procedures, etc. I think tiny versions of it happen all the time. Some amount of it we accept b/c we work with a lot of people, but how much of it can be made better?

Albert Pujols the Great

(Following up my post from earlier in the year.)

On May 29th, Albert Pujols saw his line for the year sit at

.257 BA, .326 OBP, .395 SLG, .722 OPS

Epicly awful for a man with a career line of

.330 BA, .424 OBP, .621 SLG, 1.045 OPS

at the time. Now it's September 16th. Albert Pujols just went 4 for 4 against the Phillies. His line for the year is now:

.301 BA, .372 OBP, .549 SLG, .921 OPS

This is simply stunning. After an brutally awful April & May (which likely included a hidden injury) Albert Pujols has performed well enough to get his batting average back up above .300 and have an OPS over .900. It's an incredible year by normal human standards, definitely subpar for Albert Pujols standards, but Albert Pujols' legend continues to grow.

In twenty years, will I be the old timer that still programs in C?

I was speaking to someone at a party that told me COBOL programmers make a lot of money nowadays. Somewhat shocked, I asked how this was possible. His answer was simple. There's a ton of COBOL legacy software out there and very few out there who can work on it. Companies are paying up the wazoo to grab those few out there still remaining.

I recently participated in some interviewing events for recent college grads/soon to be college grad
s. It blew me away how few of the candidates had worked in C or C++. In fact, some barely even touched C/C++.

So I started wondering, will I be that rare C programmer in 20 years? I'll be the rare programmer who knows the ancient art of working with pointers?