Wednesday, February 18, 2015

How bad has Tim Lincecum been from 2012-2014

Not so long ago I was speaking to a Giants fan and remarked about how bad Tim Lincecum had been for the Giants the last few years.  Yes, he did have those two no-hitters, but his overall body of work has been dreadful.

I remarked, "I think Lincecum has probably been worse than Barry Zito over any three years he played for the Giants."

This was a complete guess.  Going off WAR, Lincecum has a -3.0 WAR combined over the last three years (-1.7, -0.6, -0.7).  Needless to say, that's really bad.  Anything that's negative normally means a player should be replaced.

So how about Zito?  From 2007-2013, Zito had a combined WAR of 3.0.  So it's atleast positive.  Four years his WAR was positive and three years it was negative.  His best three year stretch was 2007-2009 when he had a WAR of 4.5 (2.0, -0.1, 2.6).  His worst was 2011-2013, with a WAR of -3.0 (-0.6, 0.2, -2.6).

So his worst three year stretch was the same as Lincecum's.  So it's a draw going by WAR.  Lincecum does have the opportunity to fix things this year, but it's looking pretty bleak.

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