Saturday, July 16, 2016

2016 Cubs - Things are averaging out

About a month ago I wrote about how everything was going perfectly for the Cubs as humanly possible.

I noted that the performance seemed to defy reason and some regression back to the mean seemed likely.

It seems that it happened just in the last month.

Here's the pitching roster's stats on June 6th

Jake Arrieta - 9-1, 1.80 ERA
Jon Lester - 6-3, 2.29 ERA
John Lackey - 6-2, 2.88 ERA
Kyle Hendricks - 4-4, 2.84 ERA
Jason Hammel - 7-1, 2.14 ERA

here it is today on July 16th

Jake Arrieta - 12-4, 2.68 ERA
Jon Lester - 9-4, 3.01 ERA
John Lackey - 7-5, 3.70 ERA
Kyle Hendricks - 8-6, 2.41 ERA
Jason Hammel - 7-5, 3.46 ERA 

By all means the staff is still doing really well, but 5 starters with a sub-3.00 ERA seemed beyond their capabilities.  Only Hendrick's ERA has gone down, while everyone else's went up by atleast 0.72.  Hendrick's FIP sits at 3.48, over a full run above his current ERA of 2.41.  So that may average out for him over the rest of the year too.

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