Houston Rockets and Brooklyn Nets trading picks

After the announcement of the Mikal Bridges trade from the Nets to the the Knicks, there was an interesting announcement of the Nets and Rockets trading draft picks.  The trade is pretty confusing because it involves other teams picks & swaps and also involves the Nets re-acquiring their own draft picks.  But AFAICT the details are:

Nets get their 2025 pick swap to Houston negated

Nets get their 2026 pick back from Houston

Rockets get 2025 Suns pick swap

Rockets get 2027 Suns pick

Rockets get 2029 pick and swap (Dallas & Phoenix picks)

Getting down into the weeds one can think of it more basically as

Nets get 1 pick & swap

Rockets get 2 picks & 2 swaps

The trade grades for the Rockets range from D (CBS) to an A (NYTIMES).

I thought it interesting that the trade grades are so wide ranging.  But I believe it comes down to some interesting unknowns and assumptions.

Did the Rockets make this trade AFTER knowing about the Mikal Bridges trade?  Or did they not know about it / was the trade effectively a 3 team trade (i.e. we aren't going to trade Mikal Bridges unless Rockets agree to this trade)?

If the Rockets made this trade after knowing about the Mikal Bridges trade, it would certainly grade badly as they would know the Nets are trying to tank.  They would get very good (possibly top 5) draft picks in 2025 and 2026.  Those picks would be amazingly valuable given the trajectory of their young team and their championship window.

So my assumption is the Nets would not have traded Mikal Bridges if this deal was not in place (or made an alternate move).  Afterall, tanking really only has value if you control your own picks.  Thus this was effectively a three team trade.

I imagine the Rockets had to choose between

- likely medium level draft picks in 2025 & 2026 from Nets (lets say picks in range 10-15)
- two future picks & two future swaps, to be used or traded

One can see why the Rockets agreed to the trade.  The Suns are an older team and those draft picks and swaps down the road could become quite valuable either as picks or trade assets.

Warriors Trading for D'Angello Russell, was it worth it?

So today it was announced that the Warriors had traded D'Angello Russell for Andrew Wiggins and some draft picks.

I began wondering, was the whole ordeal worth it?  Would it have been better to just let Kevin Durant walk away for nothing?

Remember, that the Warriors had the belief that they couldn't let Kevin Durant leave for nothing.  So they decided to trade for D'Angello Russell, but he wasn't free.  The Warriors had to trade:

• A top 20 protected pick to the Brooklyn Nets.  Given the Warriors terrible record this year, that will revert to a 2025 second round pick.
• Andre Iguodola to the Memphis Grizzlies.
• A first round pick to the Memphis Grizzlies in 2024 (1-4 protected), falling to 2025 (#1 protected), falling to 2026 unprotected.

By trading D'Angello Russell they get:

• Andrew Wiggins
• First round pick 2021 (1-3 protected), falling to 2022 unprotected
• 2022 second round pick

So the net result is:

• Losing Andre Iguodola (minimum 1 year, who knows beyond that)
• Gaining Andrew Wiggins
• Converting a 2024 first round draft pick into a (likely) 2021 lottery first round draft pick.
• Converting a 2025 second round draft pick into a 2022 second round draft pick.

It's not entirely clear to me that this was a net win.  Granted the Warriors weren't going to be that good in 2019-2020 given all their injuries, but going into the 2020-2021 season, if they wanted to make a run at another deep playoff run, they would have the following the following to work with:

1. their own 2024 first round draft pick
2. their own 2025 second round draft pick
3. Andre Iguodola, re-signed or traded for additional assets
4. more cap space

 vs.

1. the Wolves 2021 first round draft pick
2. the Wolves 2022 second round draft pick
3. Andrew Wiggins
4. less cap space

To me, it's not entirely clear its a net win.  The 2024-2025 drafts are so far off, it's hard to really tell if they are better assets than the Wolves draft picks.  The Wolves are likely to be a lottery team in 2021, perhaps making their draft pick more valuable short term.  And remember they still have their own 2020 draft pick, which will be a (likely) top 5 lottery pick.

The big question mark is really Andrew Wiggins and the salary cap space.  Is Andrew Wiggins better than whatever the Warriors could have acquired via the free agent market in 2020?  The free agent market for 2020 is considered quite thin, so perhaps its a reasonable gamble to get back into contention.

I can't help but look at the 2020 free agent market and think a Danilo Gallinari might fit in well at small forward for the Warriors (or Gordon Hayward if he opts out), and not cost quite as much money.  But signing free agents are never a guaranteed thing (see 2019-2020 Knicks of course).  Who knows who will be available (Gallinari was apparently offered an extension by the Miami Heat in his almost trade to them) and who knows if the Warriors would be considered a destination after finishing about last in the league.

And we can't forget, the Warriors may have wanted to make a run at a huge free agent in 2021 (i.e. Giannis).  But they may be unable to do so unless they unload Andrew Wiggins' contract.

But then again, by 2021, with only two years left on the contract, perhaps his contract will be more easily dumpable, especially with the 2021 draft pick from the Wolves.

Update:

After thinking about it a bit more, perhaps the goal of fighting for 2021 free agents is part of the plan.  They would prefer to not have to sign a decent 2020 free agent (think a Danilo Gallinari) to a 4 year contract (3 years after 2020-2021 season).  They would much rather have Andrew Wiggins with only 2 years left on his contract.  If Andrew Wiggins works out, great!  If he doesn't, with only two years left on the contract, his contract is now more tradeable.

The NBA Turning Into A 3-Point League

Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors are off to an amazing 38-4 start to the 2015-2016 season.  Stephen Curry is undoubtedly been the NBA's MVP during the first half of the season. 

The statistic I find most fascinating about Stephen Curry's run this year is the number of three pointers he's shooting.  As of this writing, he's got 193 three pointers on the year.  That's good for a pace of 376 over 82 games.  Keep in mind, he missed a couple of games due to an injury earlier in the year.  For a good part of the year prior to that injury he was on pace for over 400.

Regardless, any of these numbers will completely shatter the NBA record for three pointers in a season, which Curry already owns.  He had 286 three pointers last year to set the record.  That beat his prior record of 272 which he accomplished in 2012-2013.  With 261 in 2013-2014, he owns three of the top five three point shooting seasons in NBA history.

While Curry is going to annihilate this record, it's really an indication of how much the NBA has changed in terms of the three pointer being used as a weapon.  The NBA changed three point line distances several times starting in 1994 before settling into what it is today in the 1996-1997 season.  Ever since then three point shooting has gone up and up.  From 1997-2001 teams averaged 4.6 three pointers per game.  Then from 2001 to 2005, NBA teams averaged over 5 per game.  Then from 2006 to 2012 it grew to over 6 per game.  From 2012 to 2015 it jumped to over 7 per game.  And now in the 2015-2016 season, teams are currently averaging 8.3 three pointers per game.

The change in the game can be perhaps be illustrated best by looking at Michael Jordan's early career.  Debated as the best basketball player of all time, but minimally the best shooting guard of all time, some of Jordan's pre-1994 three point statistics can look comical by modern day measurements.

For example, Jordan lead the league in scoring each year from 1986 to 1989.  However, he made an phenomenally unimpressive 46 three pointers in those three seasons.  Yes, that's 46 three pointers in THREE SEASONS.  As a comparison, Stephen Curry has made 47 in his last eight games.  In the 1987-1988 season, Jordan made a comical 7 three pointers total and had a horrible 13.2% shooting percentage on three pointers.  Even during a championship year in the 1991-1992 season, Jordan made only 27 three pointers on 27% shooting (the league average was 33.1%).

Later, Jordan's three point shooting grew just as it did for the rest of the NBA, but it's comical looking at some of those early numbers.

The So Far Forgotten San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs are playing great.  It's almost been forgotten and certainly not covered much given the 24-0 start the Golden State Warriors had.

The Spurs are currently 23-5 and sit only 3.5 games out from first place in the Western Conference.  That 23-5 record translates to a 67 win season, which would match what the Warriors did in 2014-2015 and tie for one of the top ten most winning seasons in NBA history.

I can't help but wonder what the Warriors are thinking.  They are off to the best start in NBA history, and when they look at the standings they are only 3.5 games in front of the Spurs.  In contrast, they'd be about 8 games ahead of Cleveland in the Eastern Conference.