Thursday, January 24, 2019

Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2024

It was recently announced that the Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2019 would include Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, and Roy Halladay.

What's interesting is how many players have been voted in in recent years after a big donut in 2013.

2014 - Maddux, Glavine, Thomas
2015 - Johnson, P. Martinez, Smoltz, Biggio
2016 - Griffey Jr., Piazza
2017 - Bagwell, Raines, Rodriguez
2018 - Jones, Guerrero, Thome, Hoffman
2019 - Rivera, E. Martinez, Mussina, Halladay

That's 4 players in each of the last two years, atleast 3 in 5 of the last 6 years, for a total of 20 in the last 6 years.  In contrast, there were only 9 players elected from 2007-2012 (and again, there were zero in 2013).

However, things are looking slim for awhile.  Assuming that PED connected layers like Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa, and controversial players like Schilling won't get to 75%, here's what looks like the strong and maybe cases until 2023.

2020 - Jeter is a lock, Bobby Abreu is a medium candidate
2021 - Tim Hudson is the best of a weak new set of candidates
2022 - Alex Rodriguez has PED connections, David Ortiz is a strong consideration
2023 - Carlos Beltran is a medium-strong candidate

Discounting players connected to PEDs, I would say there were 5-6 locks amongst the 2013-2019 group, and 5-6 medium to strong candidates.  But the 2020-2023 group looks a little thin.  Only 1 lock with Jeter, and Ortiz & Beltran the only minimally medium-ish candidates (discounting the PED connected A-Rod).

I was curious which players retired after the 2018 baseball season, because they would be eligible for the 2024 HOF vote.  2024 is when the HOF voting should pick up again.  The 2024 additions could be Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, and Chase Utley.  I would consider Suzuki a lock, Beltre, a "very strong", Mauer a medium-strong, and Utley atleast medium (he could hover like Jeff Kent has).  Suzuki hasn't officially retired yet, so it's possible he would be included in the 2025 HOF vote, but things should definitely pick up after 2023.

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