Livermore Outlet Mall Analysis - Competing with Vacaville and Gilroy Outlets

So a new outlet mall just opened up in Livermore (Paragon Outlets).  I don't know everything about retail shopping and brands, but it seems pretty damn nice.  It's headlined by the Saks, Bloomingdales, and Neiman Marcus department outlets.  There are also outlet stores for premium brands like Prada, Aramani, Burberry, Barneys, Kate Spade, Coach, and others (which to be very honest, I had never heard of the brand Kate Spade and did not know about its popularity until I saw a line of 20 women lined up outside of their store at 10pm).  There are many "middle tier" stores that I shop at like Gap, Banana Republic, Jcrew, Lacoste.

Anyways, I ran upon this article about the affect the new outlet mall would have on Gilroy and their revenues.  There was the following quote:

"“I think they are far enough away that there isn’t a lot of angst here that they will create competition,” said Susan Valenta, Gilroy's Chamber of Commerce CEO.  "

This quote got me thinking, is it really true?  I know that there are people out there that do the following analysis for a living, but I'm going to play business analyst and see what I can come up with.

As far as I can tell, there are two other major outlet malls in the bay area that are at the same level of Livermore's, one in Vacaville and one in Gilroy (although many believe Livermore has more/better stores/brands, but we're going to ignore that).  There's one in Napa, but its much smaller than the others so I'm not going to count it.  (Update: Someone reminded me that the Great Mall in Milpitas is sort of like an outlet mall.  But I'm not going to count that either, it's really a half outlet mall and half normal mall.)

Using Google Maps, the following are travel distance times from a number of Bay Area locales to these outlet malls.  Presently, the new Livermore Outlet Mall is not on Google Maps, so I will use the Target across the highway as my destination point (Livermore's outlet mall is the south exit off the highway, Target is the north exit at the same spot.  I also forced Google Maps to reroute the Target directions to use the same exit instead of a 1 minute faster local road.).

City	To Livermore	To Gilroy	To Vacaville	Closer to Livermore than Gilroy	Closer to Livermore than Vacaville
San Francisco	49 mins	86 mins	66 mins	37 mins	17 mins
San Mateo	43 mins	65 mins	85 mins	22 mins	42 mins
Foster City	40 mins	64 mins	84 mins	24 mins	44 mins
Redwood City	49 mins	60 mins	93 mins	11 mins	44 mins
Palo Alto	51 mins	52 mins	96 mins	1 mins	44 mins
Mountain View	45 mins	46 mins	99 mins	1 mins	49 mins
Cupertino	49 mins	42 mins	103 mins	-7 mins	54 mins
San Jose	42 mins	35 mins	97 mins	-7 mins	55 mins
Milpitas	36 mins	44 mins	90 mins	8 mins	54 mins
Fremont	31 mins	52 mins	82 mins	21 mins	51 mins
Castro Valley	20 mins	68 mins	68 mins	48 mins	48 mins
Oakland	37 mins	80 mins	56 mins	43 mins	24 mins
Walnut Creek	28 mins	82 mins	46 mins	54 mins	18 mins
Concord	34 mins	87 mins	44 mins	53 mins	10 mins
Pittsburg	44 mins	98 mins	51 mins	54 mins	7 mins

So what do I get from this chart?

Not surprisingly, anything in the East Bay is now significantly closer to a major outlet mall.  Many East Bay communities that were closer to the Vacaville outlet than Gilroy's will find themselves closer to Livermore's outlet now, even the Northeast cities like Concord and Pittsburgh will still find themselves closer to Livermore than Vacaville.

As you move South, towards Fremont & Milpitas, the Gilroy Outlet was significantly closer than the Vacaville one, presumably getting all the business from this area.  The Livermore one is now significantly closer for many of these areas and you would expect could take away those shoppers.

If you live in the South Bay closer to the San Jose area, this is where the Gilroy Outlet finally becomes closer than the Livermore one.  However, it's not significant.  For both San Jose and Cupertino, the time travel savings is only 7 minutes.

As you move north on the peninsula, Gilroy gets further away and Livermore gets closer thanks to major highways/bridges (most notably 92).  It's basically a wash once you get up to just the Mountain View and/or Palo Alto area.  Once you get into the Foster City and further North area, Livermore's outlet mall is over 20 minutes closer.

So it appears that for pretty much most of the bay area, Livermore's new outlet mall ranges from a "bit closer" to "much closer" than the Gilroy or Vacaville outlet malls.  Even in the areas where the Gilroy or Vacaville outlets are closer, it's not enough of a time difference to make up for any major brands and/or stores shoppers really want to aim for.

Conclusion? Gilroy & Vacaville should be concerned of increased competition if they are only thinking of distance to location.